Applications in Reliability and Statistical Computing

Preface
Contents
Editor and Contributors
Forecasting The Long-Term Growth  of S&P 500 Index
	1 Introduction
		1.1 Objectives
		1.2 Data Sources, Tools, and Abbreviations
	2 Total Return Index and Equity Risk Premium
		2.1 Equity Risk Premium
		2.2 Discussion—A Naive 10-Year Forecast
	3 Wavelet Analysis on the 36-Year Long Term Cycle
		3.1 Introduction to the Wavelet Transform
		3.2 Wavelet Regression of the 10-Year Returns
		3.3 Wavelet Regression of the 20-Year Returns
	4 Channel Deviation Framework
		4.1 Mean-Reversion Decomposition
		4.2 Closed Form Solution
		4.3 Optimal Choice of Look-back Channel at 45 Years
		4.4 Discussion on the Outputs
	5 Relation Between Channel Deviation and CAPE
		5.1 Regression of Log-CAPE
		5.2 Discussion
		5.3 Tectonic CAPE
	6 The Tectonic Forecast Model
		6.1 The 5-Factor Tectonic Forecast Model for Equity Returns
		6.2 20-Year Nominal Return Forecast
	References
Smart Maintenance and Human Factor Modeling for Aircraft Safety
	1 Introduction
	2 Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Commercial Aviation
	3 Smart Technology in Aviation
	4 COVID-19-Induced Problem
	5 Safe Aircraft System (SAS) Model
	6 SAS Modeling Procedure
	7 SAS Modeling Case Study
		7.1 Transport of Cargo in Passenger Aircraft
		7.2 System Description and Analysis
		7.3 Potential Hazard/Consequences Identification
		7.4 System Safety Risk Analysis
		7.5 System Safety Risk Assessment
		7.6 System Risk Controls
	8 Conclusion
	References
Feedback-Based Algorithm  for Negotiating Human Preferences  and Making Risk Assessment Decisions
	1 Introduction
	2 Literature Review
		2.1 Consistency and Feedback Exchange in Decision-Making
		2.2 MCDM Methods to Support the Problem of Research
	3 New Developments Within the AHP Framework
		3.1 Problem Setting
		3.2 Negotiation Algorithm for Feedback Exchange  with Decision Makers
	4 Hybrid MCDM Perspective
		4.1 The ELECTRE I Method for Work Equipment Selection
	5 Industrial Case Study
		5.1 Calculating Risk Factors Weights Via the Negotiation Process
		5.2 Selecting the Priority Work Equipment Via  the ELECTRE I
		5.3 Discussion of Results and Practical Insights  for Management
	6 Conclusions
	References
Joining Aspect Detection and Opinion Target Expression Based on Multi-Deep Learning Models
	1 Introduction
	2 Related Works
	3 The Proposed Method
		3.1 Multi Deep Learning Models
		3.2 Joining Aspect Detection and Opinion Target Expression
	4 Experiments
		4.1 Dataset
	5 Conclusion
	References
Voting Systems with Supervising Mechanisms
	1 Introduction
	2 Modeling of Voting Systems
		2.1 General Voting Systems
		2.2 Weighted Voting Systems
	3 Inspection Models
	4 Recent Studies
		4.1 Motivation
		4.2 Intervened Decision-Making Systems
		4.3 Numerical Example
	5 Conclusion and Future Research
	References
Assessing the Severity of COVID-19  in the United States
	1 Introduction
	2 Related Work
	3 Methodology
		3.1 Basic Metrics
		3.2 Derived Metrics
		3.3 Four New Proposed Metrics
	4 Results
	5 Discussion
	6 Conclusion
	References
Promoting Expert Knowledge  for Comprehensive Human Risk Management in Industrial Environments
	1 Introduction
	2 Literature Review
		2.1 FCMs Easing Decision-Making
		2.2 Formal Human Risks Identification
		2.3 FMECA Supporting Risk Management
		2.4 MCDM Approaches in the Analysed Field
	3 Integrated Methodological Approach
		3.1 FCMs Modelling Human Risks
		3.2 Nonlinear Hebbian Algorithms on FCMs
		3.3 Modified FMECA Integrating the Total Effect
		3.4 The Z-TODIM Method for Risk Prioritisation
	4 Case Study
		4.1 FCM Based on NHL Algorithm to Derive Total Effects
		4.2 Z-TODIM Prioritising Risks and Discussion of Results
	5 Conclusions
	References
Data Quality Assessment for ML Decision-Making
	1 Introduction
	2 Data Quality Assessment: Recent Metrics
	3 Quality Metrics in Text Recognition
	4 Quality Metrics in ECG Based Biometric Identification
	5 ML Based Timeline Data Analysis
	6 Conclusion
	References
From Holistic Health to Holistic Reliability—Toward an Integration of Classical Reliability with Modern Big-Data Based Health Monitoring
	1 Introduction
	2 Manifestation and Underlying Mechanisms of Physical and Virtual Failures
	3 An HDD Example of Virtual Failure Determination
		3.1 Critical Parameters Identification, Their Degradation Pattern and Quantification
		3.2 Parametric Trigger Limits Determination
	4 Health Philosophy and the Need for Holistic Reliability Assessment: Human-Machine Analogy
	5 Holistic Integration of Physical Failure with Virtual Failure
		5.1 Complex Number (or Vector) Analogy
		5.2 Ying-Yang Analogy
	6 Holistic Failure Quantification and Applications
	7 Holistic Reliability Analysis Considering Parametric-Degradation Based Virtual Failures—An Example
	8 Concluding Remarks
	References
On the Aspects of Vitamin D and COVID-19 Infections and Modeling Time-Delay Body's Immune System with Time-Dependent Effects of Vitamin D and Probiotic
	1 Introduction
	2 Prevalence Rates Analysis of Vitamin D Deficiency in European and Asian Countries
	3 Mathematical Model Development
		3.1 Numerical Examples
	4 Conclusion
	References
A Staff Scheduling Problem  of Customers with Reservations  in Consideration with Expected Wait Time of a Customer without Reservation
	1 Introduction
	2 Reservation and Assignment
	3 Assignment Evaluation
	4 Tabu Search
	5 Numerical Example
	6 Conclusion
	References
Decision Support System for Ranking of Software Reliability Growth Models
	1 Introduction
	2 Literature Review
	3 Performance Indexes
	4 Ranking Methodology
	5 Environment of the DSS
	6 Result and Analysis
	7 Conclusion
	References
Human Pose Estimation Using Artificial Intelligence
	1 Introduction
		1.1 Human Body Models
		1.2 Risks and Errors in Fitness Apps Based on Human Pose Estimation
		1.3 Human Pose Estimation Metrics
		1.4 2D Versus 3D Pose Estimation
		1.5 Applications of Pose Estimation
		1.6 Working of Pose Estimation
		1.7 Computer Vision
		1.8 Artificial Intelligence
		1.9 Project Description
		1.10 Benefits of Our Gym Tracker
	2 Literature Review
		2.1 Deep Neural Based Approach (Toshev et al.)
		2.2 Estimation Using Multi-scale Template Model
		2.3 Generative Approaches
		2.4 Human Pose Estimation Features with Convolutional Networks
		2.5 Deep Learning Framework Using Motion Features for Human Pose Estimation
		2.6 Movenet
		2.7 Human Pose Estimation Via DNN
		2.8 TFPOSE
		2.9 POSEAUG
		2.10 EMPOSE
		2.11 DSPNET
		2.12 ADAFUSE
		2.13 PIFPAF
		2.14 HigherHRNet
		2.15 Sim2Real
		2.16 ContextPose
		2.17 CVFusion
	3 Methodology
		3.1 Mediapipe Based Approach
		3.2 Calculating Angles
		3.3 Calculating Repetitions for Curls
		3.4 Calculating Repetitions for Pushups
		3.5 Calculating Repetitions for Pullups
		3.6 Calculating Repetitions for Squats
	4 Result
	5 Conclusion
	References
Neural Network Modeling and What-If Scenarios: Applications for Market Development Forecasting
	1 Introduction
	2 Neural Networks
	3 Data
	4 Modeling
	5 Interpretation
		5.1 Political and Electoral Cycles: Relationships with Economic Cycles
		5.2 Cause-Effects: Factor Impact Analysis
		5.3 Automotive Sales Forecast: Long-Term Accuracy
	6 Conclusion
	References
Mental Health Studies: A Review
	1 Introduction
	2 Current Research
		2.1 Data Collection, Self-Reporting Surveys, and Reviews
		2.2 Data Collection with Machine Learning Applications
		2.3 Modeling of Mental Health Using Survey Data and Machine Learning
	3 Concluding Remarks
	References