African Economic Outlook 2002-2003.

African Economic Outlook......Page 2
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT......Page 3
THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP......Page 4
Foreword......Page 5
Table of Contents......Page 6
Acknowledgements......Page 7
Preface......Page 8
Overview......Page 12
International Environment......Page 14
Figure 1 - Growth of Real Domestic Demand in Euro Area and Other OECD Countries......Page 15
Figure 2 - Evolution of Prices of Main Raw Materials Exported by Africa......Page 17
Figure 3 - Net ODA Flows to Africa......Page 18
Macroeconomic Performances in Africa......Page 19
Table 1 - Average Growth Rates of African Regions......Page 20
Table 2 - Average CPI Inflation Rates of African Regions......Page 21
Table 3 - Average Fiscal Balance/GDP Ratios......Page 22
Figure 5 - Current Balance/GDP Ratios of African Countries in 2001......Page 23
Figure 6 - Investment/GDP Ratios of African Countries in 2001......Page 24
External Trade Performance......Page 25
Debt and Debt Relief......Page 27
Table 5 - Debt Relief Assistance (end-September 2002)......Page 28
Economic Reforms: An Assessment of Privatisation Policies......Page 29
Figure 7 - Shares of Total Sales Value to End-2000......Page 30
Has Privatisation Achieved its Objectives?......Page 31
Table 6 - Privatisation: Sale Values compared to Government Revenue and to GDP (percentage)......Page 32
Figure 9 - Privatisation Methods to End-2000 in Sub-Saharan Africa (number of transactions)......Page 33
Assessing Africa’s Progress Towards the MDGs......Page 35
Figure 10 - Progress Towards Poverty Reduction MDG in Sub-Saharan Africa......Page 36
Table 7 - Progress Toward the MDGs (22 selected countries of the African Economic Outlook Report)......Page 37
Figure 11 - Reaching the Goals in the African Regions ?......Page 38
Health......Page 39
Policy Assessment and the Cost of Meeting the MDGs in Africa17......Page 40
Box 1 - Country Performance Assessment Framework......Page 41
Figure 12 - Policy Ratings and Socio-economic Development......Page 42
NEPAD......Page 43
Box 2 - THE AFRICAN PEER REVIEW MECHANISM (APRM)......Page 44
Governance......Page 47
Political Developments......Page 48
Figure 15 - The Political Trouble Index for Côte d’Ivoire......Page 49
Figure 17 - The Political Trouble Index for Zimbabwe......Page 50
Summary and Conclusion......Page 51
Algeria......Page 56
Recent Economic Developments......Page 58
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Algeria and in Africa ($ current)......Page 59
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 60
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 61
External Position......Page 62
Structural Issues......Page 63
Political and Social Context......Page 65
Botswana......Page 68
Recent Economic Developments......Page 70
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Botswana and in Africa (current $)......Page 71
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth, 2000/01......Page 72
Figure 5 - Trends in Growth Rates of Total and Mining GDP......Page 73
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 74
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 75
External Developments......Page 76
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 77
Structural Issues......Page 78
Social and Political Developments......Page 81
Burkina Faso......Page 84
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 86
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Burkina Faso and in Africa (current $)......Page 87
Figure 4 - Contribution to GDP Growth at Factor Prices in 2001......Page 88
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 89
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 90
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 91
External Position......Page 92
Structural Issues......Page 93
Political and Social Context......Page 95
Cameroon......Page 98
Recent Economic Developments......Page 100
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Cameroon and in Africa (current $)......Page 101
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001/2002......Page 102
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 103
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)a......Page 104
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 105
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 106
Structural Issues......Page 107
Political and Social Context......Page 108
Côte d’Ivoire......Page 110
Recent Economic Developments......Page 112
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Côte d’Ivoire and in Africa ($ current)......Page 113
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 114
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 115
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 116
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 117
Figure 6 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 118
Structural Issues......Page 119
Political and Social Context......Page 120
Egypt......Page 122
Recent Economic Developments......Page 124
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Egypt and in Africa (current $)......Page 125
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2000/01......Page 126
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 127
Table 2 - Public Finances a (percentage of GDP)......Page 128
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 129
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 130
Structural Issues......Page 131
Political and Social Context......Page 132
Ethiopia......Page 134
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growtha......Page 136
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Ethiopia and in Africa (current $)......Page 137
Figure 3 - GDP by Sector in 2000/01......Page 138
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth, 2000/01......Page 139
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 140
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 141
External Position......Page 142
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 143
Structural Issues......Page 144
Political and Social Context......Page 145
Figure 6 - Reduction in Defence Spending is Contributing to Poverty Alleviation......Page 147
Gabon......Page 148
Recent Economic Developments......Page 150
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Gabon and in Africa (current $)......Page 151
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 152
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP) 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 (......Page 153
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 154
Tableau 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 155
Structural Issues......Page 156
Political and Social Context......Page 158
Ghana......Page 160
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 162
Recent Economic Developments......Page 163
Figure 3 - Cocoa Production Levels and Real Producer Price......Page 164
Figure 5 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 165
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 166
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 168
External Position......Page 169
Figure 6 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 170
Structural Issues......Page 171
Political and Social Context......Page 172
Kenya......Page 176
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 178
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Kenya and in Africa (current $)......Page 179
Figure 3 - GDP by Sector in 2001......Page 180
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 181
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 182
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 183
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 184
Structural Issues......Page 185
Political and Social Context......Page 187
Figure 6 - Total Recorded Employment, 1998-2001 (thousands)......Page 188
Mali......Page 190
Recent Economic Developments......Page 192
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Mali and in Africa ($ current)......Page 193
Figure 4 - Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 194
Table 1 - Gold Production (tonnes)......Page 195
Table 3 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 196
External Position......Page 197
Figure 6 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 198
Structural Issues......Page 199
Political and Social Context......Page 201
Mauritius......Page 204
Recent Economic Developments......Page 206
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Mauritius and in Africa ($ current)......Page 207
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 208
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 210
Table 2 - Public Finances a (percentage of GDP)......Page 211
External Position......Page 212
Figure 6 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 213
Structural Issues......Page 214
Political and Social Context......Page 216
Morocco......Page 218
Recent Economic Developments......Page 220
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Morocco and in Africa ($ current)......Page 221
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 222
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 223
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 224
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 225
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of goods and services)......Page 226
Structural Issues......Page 227
Political and Social Context2......Page 228
Mozambique......Page 232
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growtha......Page 234
Recent Economic Developments......Page 235
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to Real GDP Growth, 2001......Page 236
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 239
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 240
Figure 5 - Inflation Rate (end of period)......Page 241
External Position......Page 242
Figure 6 - Mozambique’s Share of FDI Inflows in Southern Africaa......Page 243
Structural Issues......Page 244
Political and Social Context......Page 246
Nigeria......Page 250
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 252
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Nigeria and in Africa (current $)......Page 253
Figure 3 - GDP by Sector in 2001......Page 254
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth 2001......Page 255
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 256
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 257
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 259
Structural Issues......Page 260
Political and Social Context......Page 262
Senegal......Page 264
Recent Economic Developments......Page 266
Figure 2 - GDP per capita in Senegal and Africa ($ current)......Page 267
Figure 4 - Sectoral contribution to GDP in 2001......Page 268
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 269
External Position......Page 270
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 271
Structural Issues......Page 272
Political and Social Context......Page 274
South Africa......Page 278
Recent Economic Developments......Page 280
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in South Africa and in Africa ($ current)......Page 281
Figure 4 - Sectors’ contribution to growth in 2001......Page 282
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 283
Fiscal and Monetary Policies......Page 284
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 285
Figure 5 - Average Monthly R:$ Exchange Rates 2001-2002......Page 286
Table 3 - Tariff Structure for 1997, 2000 and 2001 with Imports for 2000......Page 287
Figure 6 - South Africa’s Exports to and from the EU......Page 288
Structural Issues......Page 289
Figure 7 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 290
Political and Social Context......Page 293
Tanzania......Page 296
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 298
Recent Economic Developments......Page 299
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 300
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 301
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 302
External Position......Page 303
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GDP)......Page 304
Structural Issues......Page 305
Political and Social Context......Page 306
Figure 6 - The Government is Serious About Poverty Reduction......Page 307
Tunisia......Page 310
Recent Economic Developments......Page 312
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Tunisia and Africa ($ current)......Page 313
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 314
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 315
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 316
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 317
Structural Issues......Page 318
Political and social context......Page 320
Uganda......Page 322
Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth......Page 324
Recent Economic Developments......Page 325
Figure 4 - GDP by Sector in 2001/2002......Page 326
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 327
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 328
Table 2 - Public Financesa (percentage of GDP)......Page 329
External Position......Page 330
Structural Issues......Page 331
Political and Social Context......Page 333
Zambia......Page 336
Recent Economic Developments......Page 338
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Zambia and in Africa ($ current)......Page 339
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth in 2001......Page 340
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 342
Fiscal and Monetary Policy......Page 343
Figure 5 - Inflation Rate......Page 344
Table 3 - Current Account (percentage of GDP)......Page 345
Structural Issues......Page 346
Political and Social Context......Page 349
Zimbabwe......Page 354
Recent Economic Developments......Page 356
Figure 2 - GDP Per Capita in Zimbabwe and in Africa ($ current)......Page 357
Figure 4 - Sectoral Contribution to Real Growth in 2001a......Page 358
Table 1 - Demand Composition (percentage of GDP)......Page 360
Table 2 - Public Finances (percentage of GDP)......Page 361
External Position......Page 363
Figure 5 - Stock of Total External Debt (percentage of GNP) and Debt Service (percentage of exports of goods and services)......Page 364
Structural Issues......Page 365
Political and Social Context......Page 367
Statistical Annex......Page 372
List of tables......Page 374
Table 15: Basic Health Indicators......Page 375
Table 21 to 23: Political indicators......Page 376
Table 23: Hardening of the political regime......Page 377
Weights in “hardening of the political regime”......Page 378
Table 1 - Basic Indicators, 2001......Page 379
Table 2 - Real GDP Growth Rates, 1995-2003......Page 381
Table 3 - Demand Composition, 2001 (percentage of GDP)......Page 383
Table 4 - Public Finances, 2001 ($ million, current prices)......Page 385
Table 5 - Monetary Indicators......Page 387
Table 6 - Current Account, 2001 ($ million)......Page 389
Table 7 - Exports, 2000......Page 391
Table 8 - Diversification and Competitiveness......Page 393
Table 9 - International Prices of Exports, 1996-2001......Page 395
Table 10 - Foreign Direct Investment ($ million)......Page 397
Table 11 - Aid Flows ($ million)......Page 399
Table 12 - External Debt Indicators......Page 401
Table 13 - Demographic Indicators......Page 403
Table 14 - Poverty and Income Distribution Indicators......Page 405
Table 15 - Basic Health Indicators......Page 407
Table 16 - Sanitary Conditions......Page 409
Table 17 - Major Diseases......Page 411
Table 18 - Basic Education Indicators......Page 413
Table 19 - School Enrolment......Page 415
Table 20 - Corruption Perception Index......Page 417
Table 22 - Softening of the Regime......Page 419
Table 23 - Hardening of the Regime......Page 420