Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: In Pursuit of Virulence Management

Cover......Page 1
Frontmatter......Page 2
Contents......Page 8
Contributing Authors......Page 15
List of Boxes......Page 17
Notational Standards......Page 18
1 - Introduction......Page 20
A - Setting the Stage......Page 26
Introduction to Part A......Page 27
2.1 Introduction: Historical Background......Page 29
2.2 Virulence Depending on Transmission Modes......Page 30
2.3 Effects of Transmission Mode on Virulence......Page 37
2.4 Model of Virulence Evolution and Waterborne Transmission......Page 38
2.5 Discussion: Applications and Implications......Page 43
3.1 Introduction......Page 45
3.2 Microparasites versus Macroparasites......Page 46
3.3 Impact of Parasitism on Community Structure......Page 48
3.4 Example: The pan-African Rinderpest Epidemic......Page 50
3.5 Role of Genetic Diversity......Page 51
3.6 Myxomatosis and the Coevolution of Virulence Traits......Page 52
3.7 Evolutionary Race Between Host and Parasite......Page 53
3.9 Interspecific Transmission Influences Virulence......Page 54
3.10 Example: Pasteurella Outbreaks in Bighorn Sheep......Page 55
3.11 Potential Impact of Wildlife Diseases on Human Health......Page 56
3.12 Discussion......Page 57
4.1 Introduction......Page 58
4.2 Limitations of R0 Maximization......Page 59
4.3 Adaptive Dynamics Theory......Page 63
4.4 Pathogen Evolution......Page 64
4.5 Pathogen--Host Coevolution......Page 73
4.6 Discussion......Page 76
5.1 Introduction......Page 79
5.2 Optimal Antiparasite Strategies......Page 81
5.3 Parasite Evolutionary Responses......Page 84
5.4 Discussion......Page 87
B - Host Population Structure......Page 90
Introduction to Part B......Page 91
6.1 Introduction......Page 93
6.2 Theory of Multigenerational Epidemics......Page 94
6.3 Controlling Gypsy Moths by Genetically Engineered Viruses......Page 96
6.4 Discussion......Page 103
7.1 Introduction......Page 104
7.2 Epidemics on Contact Networks......Page 109
7.3 Mean-field Dynamics......Page 110
7.4 Across-network Dynamics......Page 111
7.5 Pair Dynamics......Page 113
7.6 Implications of Network Structure......Page 116
7.7 Evolutionary Stability......Page 118
7.8 Discussion......Page 120
8.1 Introduction......Page 123
8.2 Sources and Sinks: Pervasive in Host--Pathogen Systems?......Page 126
8.3 A Limiting Case: Two Coupled Patches......Page 127
8.4 On to Praxis......Page 135
8.5 Discussion......Page 137
C - Within-Host Interactions......Page 140
Introduction to Part C......Page 141
9.1 Introduction......Page 143
9.2 Superinfection......Page 144
9.3 Coinfection......Page 150
9.4 Discussion......Page 154
10.1 Introduction......Page 157
10.2 Coinfection and the Superinfection Limit......Page 158
10.3 Coexistence and the Superinfection Function......Page 162
10.4 Discussion......Page 166
11.1 Introduction......Page 169
11.2 Multiple Infection, Virulence, and Dispersal......Page 172
11.3 Indirect Effects......Page 176
11.4 Virulence Management......Page 180
11.5 Discussion......Page 182
12.1 Introduction......Page 184
12.2 Kin-selection Models of Virulence......Page 185
12.3 Conditional Virulence Strategies......Page 186
12.4 Genetically Fixed Virulence Strategies......Page 190
12.5 Within-host Competition and Between-host Fitness......Page 191
12.6 Management Implications......Page 196
12.7 Discussion......Page 197
D - Pathogen--Host Coevolution......Page 198
Introduction to Part D......Page 199
13.1 Introduction......Page 202
13.2 Mathematics of Cell Death......Page 203
13.3 Evolutionary Dynamics of Cell-death Signals......Page 206
13.4 Threshold Reversals......Page 207
13.5 Experimental Case Studies......Page 208
13.6 Lessons from Case Studies......Page 211
13.7 Testing the Model......Page 212
13.8 Medical Implications......Page 213
13.A The Cell-death Model: Assessment of Extrema......Page 214
14.1 Introduction......Page 216
14.2 Importance of Species and Space in Population Dynamics......Page 217
14.3 (Co)Evolution of Impact by Natural Enemies......Page 218
14.4 Discussion......Page 223
15.1 Introduction......Page 229
15.2 Simulating the Coevolution of Hosts and Pathogens......Page 231
15.3 Dynamically Maintained Polymorphism......Page 233
15.4 Host and Pathogen Evolution......Page 235
15.5 Heterozygosity versus Frequency-dependent Selection......Page 238
15.6 Discussion......Page 239
16.1 Introduction......Page 241
16.2 Discrete-time Genetics and Epidemic Diseases......Page 243
16.3 Discrete-time Genetics and Endemic Diseases......Page 246
16.4 Continuous Genetic Models......Page 247
16.5 Coevolution......Page 249
16.6 Discussion......Page 250
17.1 Introduction......Page 252
17.2 Gene-for-gene Interaction......Page 253
17.3 Coevolutionary Dynamics in Gene-for-gene Systems......Page 256
17.4 Discussion......Page 263
18.1 Introduction: Sex and Coevolution......Page 267
18.2 Sexual Selection......Page 269
18.3 Hypotheses for Parasite-driven Sexual Selection......Page 271
18.4 The Pathogen's View......Page 276
18.5 Implications for Virulence Management......Page 278
18.6 Discussion......Page 279
19.1 Introduction......Page 281
19.2 Phylogenetic Tools......Page 282
19.3 Case Studies......Page 286
19.4 Discussion......Page 294
E - Multilevel Selection......Page 296
Introduction to Part E......Page 297
20.1 Introduction......Page 299
20.3 Senescence Plasmids in Fungi......Page 300
20.4 Population Genetics of Senescence Plasmids: A Model......Page 301
20.5 Intragenomic Conflict and Virulence Management......Page 302
20.6 Discussion: Host Senescence and Pathogen Virulence......Page 303
21.1 Introduction......Page 305
21.2 Ecology and Evolution of Virulence with Hyperparasites......Page 306
21.4 Hyperparasitism in the Chestnut Blight System......Page 310
21.5 Previous Efforts at Virulence Management......Page 311
21.6 Virulence Management: Suggestions from Theory......Page 313
21.7 Discussion......Page 315
22.1 Introduction......Page 316
22.2 Spatial and Temporal Scales of Interaction......Page 318
22.3 Predator--Herbivore Dynamics on Individual Plants......Page 319
22.4 Tritrophic Game Theory and Metapopulation Dynamics......Page 326
22.5 Discussion......Page 337
22.A Evolutionarily Stable Herbivore Emigration Rate......Page 339
F - Vaccines and Drugs......Page 342
Introduction to Part F......Page 343
23.1 Introduction......Page 345
23.3 Dynamics of Infection: A Simple Model......Page 346
23.5 Gauging Antibiotic Therapy......Page 347
23.6 Treatment with Two Antibiotics: An Extended Model......Page 350
23.7 Multiple Antibiotic Therapy......Page 352
23.8 Discussion......Page 354
24.2 Theoretical Framework......Page 358
24.3 Case Studies from Infectious Diseases of Humans......Page 363
24.4 Discussion......Page 365
25.2 Maintenance of Pathogen Diversity in Single-locus Systems......Page 366
25.3 Multilocus Antigenic Diversity with Genetic Exchange......Page 368
25.4 Plasmodium falciparum: A Case Study......Page 372
25.5 Impact of Vaccination......Page 377
25.6 Discussion......Page 379
26.1 Introduction......Page 381
26.2 Biology, Diversity, and Impact of Two Pharyngeal Pathogens......Page 382
26.3 Conjugate Vaccines......Page 383
26.4 Serotype Replacement......Page 384
26.5 Role of Mathematical Models......Page 385
26.6 Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines versus Hib Vaccines......Page 387
26.8 Is Serotype Replacement Always Bad?......Page 389
26.9 Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Work......Page 391
26.10 Discussion......Page 393
G - Perspectives for Virulence Management......Page 394
Introduction to Part G......Page 395
27.1 Introduction......Page 398
27.2 Panoramic View of Virulence Evolution......Page 399
27.3 Conceptual Issues......Page 405
27.4 The Dialogue between Theorists and Empiricists......Page 408
27.5 Gaps in Current Knowledge......Page 412
27.6 Discussion: Toward Virulence Management......Page 416
28.2 Virulence Management of Diarrheal Diseases......Page 418
28.3 Virulence Management of Vectorborne Diseases......Page 423
28.5 Discussion: The Intervention Spectrum......Page 428
29.2 Time Needed for Resistance to Evolve......Page 432
29.3 Drugs and the Development of Resistance......Page 433
29.4 Problems in Managing Virulence in Wildlife......Page 434
29.5 Detecting the Impact of Infectious Diseases......Page 436
29.6 Pathogens and Parasites with Reservoir Hosts......Page 438
29.7 Manipulation of Infection at the Population Level......Page 439
29.8 Disease Risks of Wildlife Translocations......Page 440
29.9 Minimizing Disease Risks in Wildlife Translocations......Page 441
29.10 Discussion......Page 442
30.1 Introduction......Page 444
30.2 Virulence Evolution Made Simple......Page 446
30.3 Two-bag Model of Virulence Evolution......Page 448
30.4 Toward Virulence Management......Page 451
30.5 Discussion......Page 454
31.1 Introduction......Page 455
31.2 Two-faced Virulence......Page 456
31.3 Epidemiology, Genetics, and Evolution of Virulence......Page 457
31.4 Population Structure and Virulence Management......Page 462
31.5 Discussion......Page 465
32.1 Introduction......Page 467
32.2 At What Level Should Virulence be Considered?......Page 468
32.3 Is High Virulence Always Desirable?......Page 470
32.4 Is High Virulence a Stable Trait in Biocontrol Practice?......Page 471
32.5 How Can Virulence be Manipulated in the Field?......Page 473
32.6 Does Mass Rearing Affect Field Virulence?......Page 474
32.7 Pathogen Virulence Toward Herbivores and Their Predators......Page 475
32.8 Ecological and Evolutionary Response of the Pest......Page 476
32.9 Discussion......Page 477
33 - Epilogue......Page 479
References......Page 484
Index......Page 534
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis......Page 552