A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective

Cover......Page 1
Frontmatter......Page 2
Contents......Page 6
List of contributors......Page 11
Foreword by Arthur Brown......Page 13
Preface by Robert Leeson......Page 17
Part I - Bill Phillips: Some Memories and Reflections......Page 20
1 - A. W. H. Phillips: An extraordinary life......Page 22
2 - The versatile genius......Page 37
3 - To be his colleague was to be his friend......Page 39
4 - Phillips' adaptive expectations formula......Page 41
5 - Economist -- washing machine fixer......Page 42
6 - Playing around with some data......Page 43
7 - The Festschrift......Page 45
Part II - The Phillips Machine......Page 48
8 - The origins of the machine in a personal context......Page 50
9 - The Phillips Machine as a `progressive' model......Page 58
10 - Mechanical models in economic dynamics......Page 87
11 - The history of the Phillips Machine......Page 108
12 - Early reactions to Mark I and II......Page 134
13 - A superb explanatory device......Page 137
14 - The Phillips Machine and the history of computing......Page 139
Part III - Dynamic Stabilisation......Page 146
15 - The optimal control articles......Page 148
16 - Stabilisation policy in a closed economy......Page 153
17 - Stabilisation policy and the time-forms of lagged responses......Page 188
18 - Arnold Tustin's The Mechanism of Economic Systems: a review......Page 203
19 - Michel Kalecki's Theory of Economic Dynamics: An Essay on Cyclical and Long-Run Changes in the Capitalist Economy: a review......Page 205
20 - The growth articles......Page 208
21 - A simple model of employment, money and prices in a growing economy......Page 214
22 - Employment, inflation and growth......Page 226
23 - Economic policy and development......Page 243
24 - The famous Phillips Curve article......Page 250
25 - The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957......Page 262
26 - Discussion of Dicks-Mireaux and Dow's The Determinants of Wage Inflation: United Kingdom, 1946-1956......Page 280
27 - The Melbourne paper......Page 282
28 - Wage changes and unemployment in Australia, 1947-1958......Page 288
29 - Phillips and stabilisation policy as a threat to stability......Page 301
30 - The Phillips Curve in macroeconomics and econometrics......Page 307
31 - Bill Phillips' contribution to dynamic stabilisation policy......Page 315
32 - A Left Keynesian view of the Phillips Curve trade-off......Page 323
33 - Interactions with a fellow research engineer-economist......Page 327
34 - Does modern econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?......Page 334
35 - The famous Phillips Curve article: a note on its publication......Page 354
Part IV - Econometrics......Page 358
36 - The Bill Phillips legacy of continuous time modelling and econometric model design......Page 360
37 - The published papers......Page 367
38 - The influence of A.W. Phillips on econometrics......Page 372
39 - An appreciation of A.W. Phillips......Page 384
40 - Some notes on the estimation of time-forms of reactions in interdependent dynamic systems......Page 389
41 - Cybernetics and the regulation of economic systems......Page 404
42 - The estimation of parameters in systems of stochastic differential equations......Page 414
43 - Estimation, regulation and prediction in interdependent dynamic systems......Page 427
44 - The Walras-Bowley Paper......Page 438
45 - Estimation of systems of difference equations with moving average disturbances......Page 442
46 - The estimation of continuous time models......Page 464
47 - Estimation in continuous time series models with autocorrelated disturbances......Page 468
48 - Efficient fitting of rational spectral density functions and transfer functions......Page 470
49 - The Lucas Critique: did Phillips make a comparable contribution?......Page 478
50 - Models for the control of economic fluctuations......Page 487
51 - Statistical estimation for the purpose of economic regulation......Page 494
52 - The last paper: a foreshadowing of the Lucas Critique?......Page 498
References......Page 506
Index of names......Page 526
Index of subjects......Page 530